Climate warning and ice safety

Both scientific studies and local observations report an increase in the length of the ice-free season, and a decrease in ice thickness and in total sea ice cover throughout the North. Sea ice cover has decreased by 5-10% during the past few decades, as has multi-year ice cover and the thickness of sea ice in the central Arctic.  Earlier break-up and later freeze-up have combined to lengthen the ice-free season of rivers and lakes by up to three weeks since the early 1900s.  

Model projections show a continuation of recent trends throughout the 21st century, with sea ice retreat and summer sea ice loss projected to be the greatest in the Beaufort Sea. Scientists estimate that continued warming will decrease landfast ice thickness and duration of cover by approximately 0.06 m per 1°C and 7.5 days per 1°C, this could mean a decrease in thickness of 50cm and in duration of coverage by two months by 2080 to 2100 for communities such as Arctic Bay, Nunavut.

The ice provides a stable travelling and hunting platform for Nunavummiut, and is critical to the reproduction and survival of some Arctic marine species such as ringed seal and polar bear. Changes in the timing of the ice season and the security of this platform for human use are therefore critical for the safety of northern residents that are active on the land. Inuit report that the changes in ice characteristics increase the dangers of being on the land and decrease access to hunting areas and traditional foods.

An increase in the number of accidents and drownings associated with changing ice conditions is reported in some communities.  As well, reported impacts to Inuit household economies related to loss of earnings from seal pelt or narwhal harvests, damage to equipment and loss of access to certain wildlife food resources. In the Northwest Territories, the impact on ice road travel for the distribution of goods and income for truckers, is a significant challenge.

Finally, residents across all northern regions report that these ice changes have had negative implications for social cohesion and mental well-being because they disrupt the regular cycle of traditional land-based activities and impact the sharing of traditional foods. Similar impacts to participation in hunting and fishing activities, human safety, and social and cultural well-being are reported in association with the increases in uncharacteristic weather patterns.